Surviving?

[Ol' Bob]

These are today's and tomorrow's rainfall maps. They will update for a new today and tomorrow each day, but for now, it's what Tuesday and Wednesday are supposed to drip on us. My concern is that while "Above 3.00" is as high as they go, for Wednesday, I'm in the center of the hugest area of that that I can remember seeing. Still lots of snow in the highlands and the temperature is considerably up.


Looks like 'perfect storm' kind'a shit.

[Ol' Bob]

Hazardous Weather Outlook (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone...eather+Outlook)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
501 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2009

ORZ003>014-WAZ019-020-022-023-039-040-071315-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
501 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. SEE PDXFFAPQR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. SEE PDXESFPQR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$



Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
206 PM PST MON JAN 5 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...

.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN COMBINATION WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL
RENEW THE THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS WEEK. THE RAIN WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...
THEN CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY COULD REACH 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE CASCADES AND
OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES AT THE COAST...AND
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON...ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...IN
THE FAR NORTH OREGON CASCADES...AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS FROM
AROUND PORTLAND NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 8000
FEET TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FINALLY FALLING TO NEAR PASS
ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

ORZ001>014-WAZ019>023-039-040-062300-
/O.NEW.KPQR.FA.A.0001.090107T0600Z-090110T0200Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z. OO/
NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASTORIA...CANNON BEACH...TILLAMOOK...
LINCOLN CITY...NEWPORT...FLORENCE...VERNONIA...JEWELL...TR ASK...
GRANDE RONDE...TIDEWATER...SWISSHOME...ST. HELENS...CLATSKANIE...
HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM...
MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY ...HOOD RIVER...
CASCADE LOCKS...MULTNOMAH FALLS...SANDY...
SILVER FALLS STATE PARK...SWEET HOME...GOVERNMENT CAMP...
DETROIT...SANTIAM PASS...VIDA...LOWELL...COTTAGE GROVE...
MCKENZIE BRIDGE...OAKRIDGE...WILLAMETTE PASS...PARKDALE...ODELL...
COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...MOUNT ST. HELENS...FRANCES...
RYDERWOOD...RAYMOND...LONG BEACH...CATHLAMET...LONGVIEW...KELSO...
CASTLE ROCK...STEVENSON...SKAMANIA...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...
WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR
206 PM PST MON JAN 5 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST
OREGON...CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY...CASCADES IN LANE
COUNTY...CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON...CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON...GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...LOWER
COLUMBIA...NORTH OREGON COAST...NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES...SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...GREATER VANCOUVER AREA...I-5
CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST...WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND WILLAPA HILLS.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH RISING SNOW
LEVELS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AS WAVES OF MOISTURE RIDE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE END TO THE PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...ALONG
THE COAST FROM ABOUT TILLAMOOK NORTH...AND INLAND FROM AROUND
THE PORTLAND AREA NORTH. SNOW MELT AND HIGH RIVER FLOWS LEFT
OVER FROM THE NEW YEARS DAY FLOOD WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL...AND EVEN A FEW RIVERS SOUTH OF PORTLAND COULD BE AT
RISK.

* RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN FOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING
COASTAL RIVERS...THE NEHALEM...WILLAPA...NASELLE...WILSON...
TRASK...GRAYS...NESTUCCA AND SILETZ. INLAND RIVERS INCLUDE...
THE COWLITZ...LEWIS...JOHNSON CREEK...MARYS...LUCKIAMUTE...
SOUTH YAMHILL...CLACKAMAS...MOLALLA...TUALATIN...PUDDING ...
SANDY...SANTIAM...AND THE HOOD RIVER. THE MAINSTEM WILLAMETTE
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES...AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD
STAGE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT.
PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN
CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE AT SERIOUS RISK
FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

THE NEXT UPDATE FOR THIS WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM TUESDAY.

$$

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

[Adam Schneider]

The question is, what does five inches of rain do to Club Mud?

[Ol' Bob]

Well, today has not produced the numbers yet. The kinds of amounts they're talking about probably means we're cut off by high water and washouts. I posted that stuff more with the region in mind. The ten day forecast shows some light at the end of the tunnel. I'm ready for a break from weather hassles.

[Ol' Bob]

Road and power out for up to three days is estimate. Still have phone service, hence this update. They say the heaviest rain is still to come.

[Ol' Bob]

Power is back on but the road is multiply destroyed.

...get your mind of wintertime
you ain't goin' nowhere...

[zippyboy]

So, how do I get out there to throw things with you on Sunday then?!?!

What are those lazy bastards at the county doing, anyway? We have things to throw, at other things!!

[Ol' Bob]

No chance but to park on the road and walk in (1/3 mile, mostly uphill). Not great security in the parking lot.

Don't dis our utility and county road guys. They are gods!

On edit: dis CenturyTel all you like. They're bums. Somehow, through dumb luck and years of calls to the state utility commish by yours truly, the phones stayed on (after a fashion).

[Ol' Bob]

Update, Friday 4:00 PM:

The county has restored as much as a one lane access with a CYA "Road Closed" sign. The ritual throwing of things may, in fact, take place for the first time in calendar year, 2009, any day now. The course hasn't been played since before the legendary snows of last year. It will be sure to be an adventure. I will try to get around to sawing some pass-throughs in logs across trails in the woods.

["Over the Hill" Bob]

Glad to here things are getting better up there. Send us some pics if you can Bob, I'm sure everyone would like to see how the Mudd is looking.

Bob

[zippyboy]

Could you hold off the throwing of things until Sunday?

I know I can make it out then, and I may be able to bring another of the 'Nation, maybe two.

Let me know.

(Whether you throw without us earlier or not, I will still see you Sunday morning.)

That is, if SR4 is open to get me that far...

[Ol' Bob]

Used a whole tank of gas in the saw to make it from the 12th tee to hole 16, skipping the new holes for the waning daylight. Many more trees and limbs were down since the last time I'd seen it, a couple of days before the snow ended. Bring a photographer type with you, Zip.

=================

I've been starting to feel guilty for holding your two Sidewinders hostage for so long Bob. Should I send them off in your direction with the Zipster?

["Over the Hill" Bob]

Originally Posted by Ol' Bob

I've been starting to feel guilty for holding your two Sidewinders hostage for so long Bob. Should I send them off in your direction with the Zipster?

I'm planning to be up soon actually. Being unemployed gives a guy a bit more time.

Bob

[zippyboy]

Bob, if you make that trip out there, you'd better let me know! At the very least, you could swing by the garage for a smoke and beverage...

And Bob, the photographer-type said he'd be down for a road trip your direction Sunday morning...

[Ol' Bob]

Between me and my neighbors, you can imagine what the workload is looking like. BTW, the big slide across the creek moved some but didn't come down the way I thought it might. Lots of sandstone broke up and calved off the outside of the monolith, but the major mass only slipped down a little. The road and the creek will tell you that you've spent your "D" ticket and are now in Adventure Land.

Anyway, what I'm trying to do is 'splain why I'm contracting out the photo-journalism duties. I'm going to be taping the playoffs for evening viewing.

Could be the best possible conditions for finding long-lost discs. The snow really did a number on the ferns, canary grass, and blackberries. Got any rubber boots?

[zippyboy]

Were you asking about the rubber boots because you need them? If so, what size?

Also, we will be departing Longview at approximately nine. Therefore, we will arrive slightly later than normal.

["Over the Hill" Bob]

So doing the math which I'm not to good at by the way, if Zip and the boys are leaving Longview about 9 and I leave Milwaukie about 8 we should arrive at Club Mudd about the same time. Wife has Chick Flick tomorrow so I just as well have some fun of my own.

Bob

[Ol' Bob]

I'll be wearing rubber boots. I think they make quite a fashion statement and soon, everyone will be wearing them. Mine have been splashed with gray paint for an added touch of self expression.

[zippyboy]

Many thanks to Ol' Bob, OTH Bob, Bishop, and Jasonrocksout. Today was the most fun I have had disc golfing in a long time, and probably the most fun I have had in the 2009 calendar year!

Ol' Bob got the first (black) ace at the Mud, already, and also picked up its first birdie of the new year. He also took down the first round at the Mud for the year! To say that the five of us had fun would be an understatement.

We had to cross "Road Closed" signs to make it out to the property, and, damn the water and wind wreaked some havoc. A number of the holes now have alternate or totally different windows from the tees. It was amazingly beautiful, though.

Awesome day, guys. OTH Bob, thanks for making the trip. We would be more than happy to have you join us again!