SLSH @ Blue Lake....Statistic Guesses?!

[nayr]

Originally Posted by jeverett

But yeah, 1050-rated rounds should definitely be a possibility, providing players rated 1020+ are playing. According to Chuck, 90% of the time players with established (i.e. they have at least 8 previous rated rounds, spread across multiple courses/layouts) ratings record rounds within +/- 30 rating point of their own rating.

I'm expecting the scoring spread at this event will be much greater than Winthrop due to the fact that we have everyone from 700 rated players to 1000 rated players competing on the same course. We don't have any 1020 players, but it's likely that the ~1000 rated players will be shooting in excess of 20 strokes better than the ~900 rated players, which will be very interesting. I think that +/-30 could spread out a bit.

[nayr]

This forum doesn't allow iframes, so here's a link to the data so far. The averages of everyone's guesses are at the top. Thanks to Carson for helping me rock out the formula's etc.

BL SLSH Stats Contest

[NAVA50383]

1)who will win mpo
Sean Phillips
2)mpo winning score
-16
3)avg hole 17 score
7
4)hot mpo round sat
-8
5)hot mpo round sun
-9
6)Avg first round ma2
83
7)avg score hole 7
6
8)ob strokes on lead card on second day
7
9)ssa for round 1
66
10) Ryan Gwillim's total ob
5

Ps 11) who wins women's intermediate
Michelle nava

[Rakoz]

1)who will win mpo
Sean Phillips
2)mpo winning score
-15
3)avg hole 17 score
7
4)hot mpo round sat
-10
5)hot mpo round sun
-8
6)Avg first round ma2
79
7)avg score hole 7
6
8)ob strokes on lead card on second day
7
9)ssa for round 1
62
10) Ryan Gwillim's total ob
6

[JMittl]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts).
-14
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
62
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
62
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
89
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
9
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
65
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
6

[Hippy007]

Here are the questions (keep in mind that par is 69, so -9 would be shooting a 60):

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Pinkal

2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-10

3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
7

4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
65

5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
63

6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
75

7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
6

8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
6

9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
63

10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
0

Hippy007

[Sean Phillips]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-3
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
9
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
67
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
65
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+20
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
21
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
72
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
14


I feel a little tacky voting for myself but I'm pretty all our Presidents voted for themselves too.

My guesses are way higher than most here. Especially OB strokes on lead card last day. The weather forecast looks absolutely AMAZING! I don't believe it. But if it truly is mid 50's with no wind this weekend I think I'll be a few strokes off.

[Sean Phillips]

Thank you all that guess I'm going to win.

As for those that think Pinkal's going to win Pinkal is my first pic to DNF

My second pics are Coates, Waibel, and Medlock.

[Portland Rebel]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
John Ollis: He's due
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-11
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
7
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
64
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
63
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+18
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
8
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
12
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
67
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
12

[Pizzel]

Originally Posted by Sean Phillips

Thank you all that guess I'm going to win.

You know we will be playing Blue Lake and not Rockwood, right?

FYI: You may want to have a friend follow me on the lead card Sunday to take notes as it will be hard for me to show you how to play Blue Lake when you are three cards back!

[Jason Philips]

Zing! Going to be fun to see you two battle it out.

[Pizzel]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Phillips mom!
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-6
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
64
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
64
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
87
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
15
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
69
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
7

[Sean Phillips]

Originally Posted by Pizzel

You know we will be playing Blue Lake and not Rockwood, right?

FYI: You may want to have a friend follow me on the lead card Sunday to take notes as it will be hard for me to show you how to play Blue Lake when you are three cards back!

This isn't Slosh 1 at Timber. Your mom didn't pay me to dump the first round just to give you hope this time. You better put a couple more of your wife's discs in your bag before this weekend. That 142 Valk is gonna get a little heavy there old guy.

[Pizzel]

Originally Posted by Sean Phillips

This isn't Slosh 1 at Timber. Your mom didn't pay me to dump the first round just to give you hope this time.

At least I seal the deal when mounting a Slosh comeback from the second card: http://www.pdga.com/tournament_results/79034

[Sean Phillips]

Originally Posted by Pizzel

At least I seal the deal when mounting a Slosh comeback from the second card: http://www.pdga.com/tournament_results/79034

Oh, that's a good blast from the past.

Lets take a look at the present:
http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/46113

http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/39203

[Bullseye]

Originally Posted by Pizzel

At least I seal the deal when mounting a Slosh comeback from the second card: http://www.pdga.com/tournament_results/79034

[Sean Phillips]

Originally Posted by Pizzel

At least I seal the deal when mounting a Slosh

You do what with Sloshes?

[Pizzel]

Originally Posted by Sean Phillips

Lets take a look at the present:
http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/46113

http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/39203

My player rating is higher than yours?

[EnigmaSquad]

Originally Posted by Sean Phillips

Oh, that's a good blast from the past.

Lets take a look at the present:
http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/46113

http://www.pdga.com/player_stats/39203

Not knowing either of you in person, this is becoming highly entertaining.

[EnigmaSquad]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips (Going with the hotter hand, not the higher rated)
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-8
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
65
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
64
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+21
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
16
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
68
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
12