SLSH @ Blue Lake....Statistic Guesses?!

[nayr]

Hey Everyone,

I don't post on here very often at all. My Name is Ryan Gwillim, and I'm a huge stats geek when it comes to golf. After discussing the upcoming SLSH at Blue Lake with a bunch of golfers I was taken aback by how much variance there is in everyone's guesstimations of scores. For instance, this past weekend I was talking with two of the people that have the best chance of winning the event. Their guesstimations of the winning score were WAY off from mine. And I have spoken to a lot of other people as well who were all over the board.

I've heard anywhere from -18 to -5 for the possible winning score for MPO. After muddling around I've decided that I'd like to hear more guesses on a few things. So here are a few questions that I'd like to see ppl on here answer. Whoever has the most points right gets a free McCormick fundraiser Aviar and a free koozie. Second place get's a koozie.

Please put your answers in the following format so that I can search and tally easily:

1) Question
"answer"
2) Question
"answer"
3) Question
"answer"
etc etc

It'd also be cool if you elaborate, but please don't elaborate NEXT to the answer, please keep it to a following paragraph or whatever.

Here are the questions (keep in mind that par is 69, so -9 would be shooting a 60):

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)


Some of these are dependent upon Hagerty letting me see the scores, etc. Hopefully that won't be problem. If not, we'll score just the ones I can answer from the results.

Alright...go.

*had to throw a vanity ? in there.

I'll update this as more people make their picks.

[nayr]

Here's mine:

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-8
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
7 strokes
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-6
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-5
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+23
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
12
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
67
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
4

[nayr]

Perfect score would be 17. If anyone get's a perfect score, I'll give them one of each of the four McCormick fundraisers. Call it a "Flawless Victory" bonus!

Also, feel free to edit your responses if you want. I'll lock them in on Friday night.

[907miller]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-10
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8 strokes
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-6
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-8
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+20
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
8
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
15
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
66
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
6

[907miller]

wait, will 7 be in the long placement?

[jarednfischer]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-11
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
9 strokes
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-5
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-7
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
+19
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7 strokes
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
14
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
70
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
7 Strokes

[nayr]

Originally Posted by 907miller

wait, will 7 be in the long placement?

TD Just confirmed that it will remain in the "short" placement.

[Jason Philips]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

I think Pinkal will take this one.

2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

-8

3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

6

4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

62

5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

60

6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

81

7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

5

8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

4

9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

67

10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

4

[Tbiz]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Pinkal
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-17
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-7
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-8
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
87
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
10
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
66
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
10

Looking at the weather forecast it looks like it'll be a sunny weekend.
Nice questions, I'm looking forward to seeing the results See you there!

[Matt B.]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

Phillips

2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

-9

3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

8 strokes

4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

-5

5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

-5

6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

+18

7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

7

8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

8

9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

67


10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

6 strokes

[Wog]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Pinkal
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-10
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
7
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-6
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-7
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
88
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
8
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
67
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
5

[Bullseye]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

Sean Phillips

2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

-7

3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

6

4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

64

5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

64

6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

82

7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

7

8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

9

9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

67

10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

5

[Str8MaxW8]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-8
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
7
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-5
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-5
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
83
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
13
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
68
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
7

[jeverett]

Well, if it helps any stat nerds out there, our 'scratch score estimate' feature from DGCR suggests a 1000-rated round at Blue Lake might be around 61.8. Edit: DGCR is assuming the course is 'lightly wooded' with essentially no OB.. assumptions that are probably not true. :P So take the following with a grain of salt.

If that's reasonably accurate, than also reasonably accurate would be the associated rating-point-interval-per-throw of 7.4766594. Converting that into round ratings:

a 1010-rated round will be approximately: 60.5
a 1020-rated round will be approximately: 59
a 1030-rated round will be approximately: 57.8

etc.

Here's the formula, if anyone wants it:

Score = -1 * (Rating - 1000) / 7.4766594 + 61.8

These are all of course assumptions, based on the estimated SSA of 61.8. The DGCR formulas are *typically* accurate to within +/- 1.5 of 'real' SSA, providing fair weather.

[loki]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
A) Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-12
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
8
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
60
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
62
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
86
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
7
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
13
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
65
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
8

[TheDMZ]

1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
-11
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
9 strokes
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
-7
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
-9
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
86
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
8
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
10
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
67
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
7

This tournament is going to be exciting on so many levels. Blue Lake is a very difficult course without the OB's, so with them it is anyone's guess. I am looking forward to an eventful day! Thanks Ryan for adding some statistic fun to the mix! And I hope my guess for your OB strokes is high!

[tmiller]

1) Who will win MPO
Sean Phillips
2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par)
-10
3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number)
8 strokes
4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday
-7
5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday
-5
6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)
+16
7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)
8 strokes
8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round
8
9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
67
10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
6

[nayr]

Originally Posted by TheDMZ

Thanks Ryan for adding some statistic fun to the mix! And I hope my guess for your OB strokes is high!

No problem, Zimm. I wish the stats of this game got more coverage other than "So and so won the tourney". And your OB guess is high, by at least 3 strokes.

[nayr]

Originally Posted by jeverett

Well, if it helps any stat nerds out there, our 'scratch score estimate' feature from DGCR suggests a 1000-rated round at Blue Lake might be around 61.8. Edit: DGCR is assuming the course is 'lightly wooded' with essentially no OB.. assumptions that are probably not true. :P So take the following with a grain of salt.

If that's reasonably accurate, than also reasonably accurate would be the associated rating-point-interval-per-throw of 7.4766594. Converting that into round ratings:

a 1010-rated round will be approximately: 60.5
a 1020-rated round will be approximately: 59
a 1030-rated round will be approximately: 57.8

etc.

Here's the formula, if anyone wants it:

Score = -1 * (Rating - 1000) / 7.4766594 + 61.8

These are all of course assumptions, based on the estimated SSA of 61.8. The DGCR formulas are *typically* accurate to within +/- 1.5 of 'real' SSA, providing fair weather.

Thanks for adding this in here. If DGCR SSE is correct I think we'll be seeing a few 1050 rounds by some of the top players. I was going to add the pts per stroke compression figure into the questions but I'm not sure enough people understand what it is.

In all honesty with the crazy high scores (80+) that I've been hearing from decent, 920-950 golfers, I'm expecting the PPS compression to be closer to 7.2ish. I can't recall if I've ever seen it in the 6s in a sanctioned event or not, but I don't believe so. If Chuck pops in he could enlighten us.

[jeverett]

Originally Posted by nayr

Thanks for adding this in here. If DGCR SSE is correct I think we'll be seeing a few 1050 rounds by some of the top players. I was going to add the pts per stroke compression figure into the questions but I'm not sure enough people understand what it is.

In all honesty with the crazy high scores (80+) that I've been hearing from decent, 920-950 golfers, I'm expecting the PPS compression to be closer to 7.2ish. I can't recall if I've ever seen it in the 6s in a sanctioned event or not, but I don't believe so. If Chuck pops in he could enlighten us.

Courses like Winthrop Gold have SSA's high enough to push the rating-compression-interval down below 6, but there aren't too many events out there with SSA's that high. Here's the PDGA formula to convert SSA to rating-interval, just in case you're interested:

For SSA's above 50.3289725:
Rating Increment = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858

For SSA's below 50.3289725:
Rating Increment = -0.487095 * SSA + 34.5734

Theoretically, you could also work backward from your 7.2 interval estimate:

Rating Increment = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858
7.2 = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858
7.2 - 21.3858 = -0.225067 * SSA
(7.2 - 21.3858) / -0.225067 = SSA
SSA = 63.0292312956.

But yeah, 1050-rated rounds should definitely be a possibility, providing players rated 1020+ are playing. According to Chuck, 90% of the time players with established (i.e. they have at least 8 previous rated rounds, spread across multiple courses/layouts) ratings record rounds within +/- 30 rating point of their own rating.