ratings cheat Page Title Module
Move Remove Collapse
X
Conversation Detail Module
Collapse
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    Originally posted by REDFIVE View Post
    now accepting sponsor applications!
    Hook me up with some plastic buddy!
    Sometimes my mind boggles. It's so deep my mind actually boggles.

    ~ Cyndi Lauper ~

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Chuck Kennedy View Post
      Here's a little stats fun. Waugh's rating has a standard deviation of 7.2 compared with Sexton of 2.5 SD due to having more rounds. So there's a 99%chance Chris' true rating falls between 981 and 1025. There's a 99% probability that Nate's rating falls between 1010 and 1026. So there's some chance that Waugh has a true rating higher than Sexton.
      Nice use of the words "small chance" but how about we make it more fun by sharing the actual probability that Waugh's true rating is higher than Sexton's true rating!!!

      Given that Sexton's Median score is higher then his mean score and Waugh's median is less then his mean, I am betting Waugh's chances of actual rating being higher than Sexton's is really really really really small. Waugh however is a far far far far far far far far far better golfer then I am.

      Here is a graphical review of what Chuck is telling you, I am however not using any PDGA Ratings math of the doubling of highest rated rounds!!!



      PDGA #25296
      Stumptown #34

      Comment


      • #48
        I'm looking for a new accountant, want the job?! damn man.
        Sometimes my mind boggles. It's so deep my mind actually boggles.

        ~ Cyndi Lauper ~

        Comment


        • #49
          The PDGA math does not double the highest rated rounds but the most recent 25% to give a somewhat better indication of how well someone is currently shooting.

          Comment


          • #50
            Silly that this nate and I nonsence gone this far. I am not ready for that comparison for sure. I think my rating is a bit high for how I feel I had played but quite low for what I am capable of. From the practice I've put in and the rounds with decent players in myarea I feel that therating is decently accurate. The more I play the more comfortable I would get in the tourney format and there would be more consistancy in my rounds. I shoot a 980 then a 1030 then a 990 or something like that. Bottom line I hope to get out abunch more next year and make my rating more accurate and closer to legit. Where did you get 70 rounds nate? Seems a little much to me but I am jealous you get to compete that much.
            Click here

            Challenge disc golf

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Chuck Kennedy View Post
              The PDGA math does not double the highest rated rounds but the most recent 25% to give a somewhat better indication of how well someone is currently shooting.
              My mistake Chuck, I mis-spoke.

              So you double the most recent 25% of rounds for a players rating but only if the player has more than 8 rounds. So in Waugh's case he has the 2 most recent rounds doubled, 987 & 1039 and Sexton has 21 rounds, ranging from a 970 to a 1065. Do you round up a to an integer round # or down an integer round #? Why was 25% chosen as the ideal round percentage to determine current Rating adjustments?
              PDGA #25296
              Stumptown #34

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by REDFIVE View Post
                Silly that this nate and I nonsence gone this far. I am not ready for that comparison for sure. I think my rating is a bit high for how I feel I had played but quite low for what I am capable of. From the practice I've put in and the rounds with decent players in myarea I feel that therating is decently accurate. The more I play the more comfortable I would get in the tourney format and there would be more consistancy in my rounds. I shoot a 980 then a 1030 then a 990 or something like that. Bottom line I hope to get out abunch more next year and make my rating more accurate and closer to legit. Where did you get 70 rounds nate? Seems a little much to me but I am jealous you get to compete that much.
                Chris, don't take the statistical gibberish as a mark against your playing ability. Obviously you have the ability to play at a high level but you just need to achieve more consistency at that level. You mentioned playing more in competitive situations and I believe that is where you will see the true reward of your ability. Chandler, Waugh and Crabtree would make a great playing trio and would probably help you push each other to achieve those higher gains on a more frequent basis. What keeps you from playing on a more regular basis now?
                PDGA #25296
                Stumptown #34

                Comment


                • #53
                  Kids and this season being unemployed made it difficult. I usually get to play more in the off season but those events aren't usually sanctioned. I said it before last season but I plan to play as much as possible next year.
                  Click here

                  Challenge disc golf

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Do you round up a to an integer round # or down an integer round #? Why was 25% chosen as the ideal round percentage to determine current Rating adjustments?
                    Round up. Since we use 12 months of data for ratings, the idea was that 25% was approximately a player's most recent 3 months of play (recognizing that there are seasonal fluctuations in the amount of play due to winter). Ball golf also weights a player's events with a factor that declines every three months over 2 years.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by REDFIVE View Post
                      Where did you get 70 rounds nate? Seems a little much to me but I am jealous you get to compete that much.
                      Oh I have 86 rounds, I am legit to an almost gratuitous level. I am just saying if you have less than 70 rounds the chances are you are about 20-30pts overrated. Conversely, once you get over 70 rounds you end up being 10-20 points underrated. It is pretty simple math really...right Flash?
                      Innova Champion Discs
                      Discmania
                      huk lab
                      Keen Footwear
                      Grip EQ Disc Golf Bags
                      Stimpi Ridge Disc Golf in Spokane, WA
                      Play it Again Sports Corvallis and Eugene

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Awesome new vocabulary words.

                        From now on I am calling Flash "His Royal Skewness"! When he has children they should be named Kurtosis and Standard Deviation!

                        I want to form a disc golf team next year called Mean Standard Deviated Variance and I want Flash to be our Captain. Oh please say yes to my request your Royal Skewness. JK Flash. You know your the man!
                        Training to be a bagger

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by smobro View Post
                          Awesome new vocabulary words.

                          From now on I am calling Flash "His Royal Skewness"! When he has children they should be named Kurtosis and Standard Deviation!

                          I want to form a disc golf team next year called Mean Standard Deviated Variance and I want Flash to be our Captain. Oh please say yes to my request your Royal Skewness. JK Flash. You know your the man!
                          Hey now Chuck was the one who brought out the math fun, I just thought I would make it visual for those out there can relate better that way.

                          In any case I hope Chris can make it to more sanctioned events. It would be nice to see some additional NW talent hitting the National Radars!
                          PDGA #25296
                          Stumptown #34

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Flash, I have seen your PDGA # in your signature for a while and always find it cool that mine is 25269. Iwould love to play more and get some decent backing from some companies to make it easier. I have 2 more years until I get to play every event my son wants to play and more. Looking forward to that, he just turned 6 and I figure at 7 or 8 he should be able to make it around.
                            Click here

                            Challenge disc golf

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Chuck Kennedy View Post
                              Round up. Since we use 12 months of data for ratings, the idea was that 25% was approximately a player's most recent 3 months of play (recognizing that there are seasonal fluctuations in the amount of play due to winter). Ball golf also weights a player's events with a factor that declines every three months over 2 years.
                              Good point in relation to ball golf. My only gripe is that some rounds get dropped from peoples rounds if greater than some statistical variance. Sure it may not be a true indication of their performance but it is still significant. Perhaps instead of dropping those rounds, maybe just don't weight them if they are in the top 25%. I think the method of weighting is good to move someones rating faster towards their true rating but wonder if it is too slow too respond to poor play. Sure if there is enough data to rule the bad round out as an outlier it would make sense but the same data would probably show that smoking hot rounds was an outlier as well!

                              Chuck I don't know if enough people tell you this but thanks for being so involved in Disc Golf! Now quit screwing around and come out to the 2010 Beaver State Fling!!!
                              PDGA #25296
                              Stumptown #34

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by REDFIVE View Post
                                Flash, I have seen your PDGA # in your signature for a while and always find it cool that mine is 25269. Iwould love to play more and get some decent backing from some companies to make it easier. I have 2 more years until I get to play every event my son wants to play and more. Looking forward to that, he just turned 6 and I figure at 7 or 8 he should be able to make it around.
                                Chris, I think it could happen for you with sponsorship but you might need to hit the road a bit at least in the Northwest and show some consistency as well as a steward of the game. Sponsorship is there, it is a matter of them getting what they want as well though!

                                When I was looking up your stats I noticed what appeared to be my PDGA number, but nope just real close. It looks like you got the lower number and better talent!!!!!
                                PDGA #25296
                                Stumptown #34

                                Comment

                                Announcement Announcement Module
                                Collapse
                                No announcement yet.
                                Working...
                                X