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  • SLSH @ Blue Lake....Statistic Guesses?!

    Hey Everyone,

    I don't post on here very often at all. My Name is Ryan Gwillim, and I'm a huge stats geek when it comes to golf. After discussing the upcoming SLSH at Blue Lake with a bunch of golfers I was taken aback by how much variance there is in everyone's guesstimations of scores. For instance, this past weekend I was talking with two of the people that have the best chance of winning the event. Their guesstimations of the winning score were WAY off from mine. And I have spoken to a lot of other people as well who were all over the board.

    I've heard anywhere from -18 to -5 for the possible winning score for MPO. After muddling around I've decided that I'd like to hear more guesses on a few things. So here are a few questions that I'd like to see ppl on here answer. Whoever has the most points right gets a free McCormick fundraiser Aviar and a free koozie. Second place get's a koozie.

    Please put your answers in the following format so that I can search and tally easily:

    1) Question
    "answer"
    2) Question
    "answer"
    3) Question
    "answer"
    etc etc

    It'd also be cool if you elaborate, but please don't elaborate NEXT to the answer, please keep it to a following paragraph or whatever.

    Here are the questions (keep in mind that par is 69, so -9 would be shooting a 60):

    1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
    2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
    3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
    4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
    5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
    6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
    7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
    8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
    9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
    10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)


    Some of these are dependent upon Hagerty letting me see the scores, etc. Hopefully that won't be problem. If not, we'll score just the ones I can answer from the results.

    Alright...go.

    *had to throw a vanity ? in there.


    I'll update this as more people make their picks.
    Last edited by nayr; March 7th, 2013, 05:17 AM. Reason: added spreadsheet

  • #2
    Here's mine:

    1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
    Sean Phillips
    2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
    -8
    3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
    7 strokes
    4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
    -6
    5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
    -5
    6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
    +23
    7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
    7
    8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
    12
    9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
    67
    10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
    4
    Last edited by nayr; March 6th, 2013, 12:01 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Perfect score would be 17. If anyone get's a perfect score, I'll give them one of each of the four McCormick fundraisers. Call it a "Flawless Victory" bonus!

      Also, feel free to edit your responses if you want. I'll lock them in on Friday night.
      Last edited by nayr; March 6th, 2013, 12:02 PM. Reason: added sentence.

      Comment


      • #4
        1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
        Sean Phillips
        2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
        -10
        3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
        8 strokes
        4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
        -6
        5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
        -8
        6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
        +20
        7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
        8
        8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
        15
        9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
        66
        10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
        6

        Comment


        • #5
          wait, will 7 be in the long placement?

          Comment


          • #6
            1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
            Sean Phillips
            2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
            -11
            3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
            9 strokes
            4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
            -5
            5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
            -7
            6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
            +19
            7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
            7 strokes
            8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
            14
            9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
            70
            10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
            7 Strokes

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by 907miller View Post
              wait, will 7 be in the long placement?
              TD Just confirmed that it will remain in the "short" placement.
              Last edited by nayr; March 6th, 2013, 12:49 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

                I think Pinkal will take this one.

                2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

                -8

                3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

                6

                4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

                62

                5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

                60

                6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

                81

                7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

                5

                8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

                4

                9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

                67

                10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

                4
                Last edited by Jason Philips; March 6th, 2013, 04:48 PM. Reason: More updates
                "Love is not primarily a relationship to a specific person. Love is an attitude, an ordination of character which determines the relatedness of the person to the whole world as a whole, not toward one object of love.

                Comment


                • #9
                  1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                  Pinkal
                  2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                  -17
                  3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                  8
                  4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                  -7
                  5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                  -8
                  6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                  87
                  7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                  7
                  8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                  10
                  9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                  66
                  10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                  10

                  Looking at the weather forecast it looks like it'll be a sunny weekend.
                  Nice questions, I'm looking forward to seeing the results See you there!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

                    Phillips

                    2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

                    -9

                    3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

                    8 strokes

                    4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

                    -5

                    5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

                    -5

                    6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

                    +18

                    7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

                    7

                    8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

                    8

                    9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

                    67


                    10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

                    6 strokes
                    Last edited by Matt B.; March 6th, 2013, 03:06 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                      Pinkal
                      2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                      -10
                      3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                      7
                      4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                      -6
                      5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                      -7
                      6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                      88
                      7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                      7
                      8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                      8
                      9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                      67
                      10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                      5

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)

                        Sean Phillips

                        2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)

                        -7

                        3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)

                        6

                        4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)

                        64

                        5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)

                        64

                        6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)

                        82

                        7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)

                        7

                        8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)

                        9

                        9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)

                        67

                        10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)

                        5
                        "You won't like me when I am angry, because I always back up my rage with facts and documented sources". - The Credible Hulk

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                          Phillips
                          2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                          -8
                          3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                          7
                          4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                          -5
                          5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                          -5
                          6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                          83
                          7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                          7
                          8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                          13
                          9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                          68
                          10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                          7
                          Don't knock it until you rock it!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Well, if it helps any stat nerds out there, our 'scratch score estimate' feature from DGCR suggests a 1000-rated round at Blue Lake might be around 61.8. Edit: DGCR is assuming the course is 'lightly wooded' with essentially no OB.. assumptions that are probably not true. :P So take the following with a grain of salt.

                            If that's reasonably accurate, than also reasonably accurate would be the associated rating-point-interval-per-throw of 7.4766594. Converting that into round ratings:

                            a 1010-rated round will be approximately: 60.5
                            a 1020-rated round will be approximately: 59
                            a 1030-rated round will be approximately: 57.8

                            etc.

                            Here's the formula, if anyone wants it:

                            Score = -1 * (Rating - 1000) / 7.4766594 + 61.8

                            These are all of course assumptions, based on the estimated SSA of 61.8. The DGCR formulas are *typically* accurate to within +/- 1.5 of 'real' SSA, providing fair weather.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                              A) Sean Phillips
                              2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                              -12
                              3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                              8
                              4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                              60
                              5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                              62
                              6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                              86
                              7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                              7
                              8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                              13
                              9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                              65
                              10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                              8
                              Last edited by loki; March 6th, 2013, 08:15 PM.

                              Comment

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