SLSH @ Blue Lake....Statistic Guesses?! Page Title Module
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  • #16
    1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
    Sean Phillips
    2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
    -11
    3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
    9 strokes
    4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
    -7
    5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
    -9
    6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
    86
    7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
    8
    8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
    10
    9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
    67
    10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
    7

    This tournament is going to be exciting on so many levels. Blue Lake is a very difficult course without the OB's, so with them it is anyone's guess. I am looking forward to an eventful day! Thanks Ryan for adding some statistic fun to the mix! And I hope my guess for your OB strokes is high!

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    • #17
      1) Who will win MPO
      Sean Phillips
      2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par)
      -10
      3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number)
      8 strokes
      4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday
      -7
      5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday
      -5
      6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)
      +16
      7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)
      8 strokes
      8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round
      8
      9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
      67
      10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
      6

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by TheDMZ View Post
        Thanks Ryan for adding some statistic fun to the mix! And I hope my guess for your OB strokes is high!
        No problem, Zimm. I wish the stats of this game got more coverage other than "So and so won the tourney". And your OB guess is high, by at least 3 strokes.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by jeverett View Post
          Well, if it helps any stat nerds out there, our 'scratch score estimate' feature from DGCR suggests a 1000-rated round at Blue Lake might be around 61.8. Edit: DGCR is assuming the course is 'lightly wooded' with essentially no OB.. assumptions that are probably not true. :P So take the following with a grain of salt.

          If that's reasonably accurate, than also reasonably accurate would be the associated rating-point-interval-per-throw of 7.4766594. Converting that into round ratings:

          a 1010-rated round will be approximately: 60.5
          a 1020-rated round will be approximately: 59
          a 1030-rated round will be approximately: 57.8

          etc.

          Here's the formula, if anyone wants it:

          Score = -1 * (Rating - 1000) / 7.4766594 + 61.8

          These are all of course assumptions, based on the estimated SSA of 61.8. The DGCR formulas are *typically* accurate to within +/- 1.5 of 'real' SSA, providing fair weather.
          Thanks for adding this in here. If DGCR SSE is correct I think we'll be seeing a few 1050 rounds by some of the top players. I was going to add the pts per stroke compression figure into the questions but I'm not sure enough people understand what it is.

          In all honesty with the crazy high scores (80+) that I've been hearing from decent, 920-950 golfers, I'm expecting the PPS compression to be closer to 7.2ish. I can't recall if I've ever seen it in the 6s in a sanctioned event or not, but I don't believe so. If Chuck pops in he could enlighten us.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by nayr View Post
            Thanks for adding this in here. If DGCR SSE is correct I think we'll be seeing a few 1050 rounds by some of the top players. I was going to add the pts per stroke compression figure into the questions but I'm not sure enough people understand what it is.

            In all honesty with the crazy high scores (80+) that I've been hearing from decent, 920-950 golfers, I'm expecting the PPS compression to be closer to 7.2ish. I can't recall if I've ever seen it in the 6s in a sanctioned event or not, but I don't believe so. If Chuck pops in he could enlighten us.
            Courses like Winthrop Gold have SSA's high enough to push the rating-compression-interval down below 6, but there aren't too many events out there with SSA's that high. Here's the PDGA formula to convert SSA to rating-interval, just in case you're interested:

            For SSA's above 50.3289725:
            Rating Increment = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858

            For SSA's below 50.3289725:
            Rating Increment = -0.487095 * SSA + 34.5734

            Theoretically, you could also work backward from your 7.2 interval estimate:

            Rating Increment = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858
            7.2 = -0.225067 * SSA + 21.3858
            7.2 - 21.3858 = -0.225067 * SSA
            (7.2 - 21.3858) / -0.225067 = SSA
            SSA = 63.0292312956.

            But yeah, 1050-rated rounds should definitely be a possibility, providing players rated 1020+ are playing. According to Chuck, 90% of the time players with established (i.e. they have at least 8 previous rated rounds, spread across multiple courses/layouts) ratings record rounds within +/- 30 rating point of their own rating.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by jeverett View Post
              But yeah, 1050-rated rounds should definitely be a possibility, providing players rated 1020+ are playing. According to Chuck, 90% of the time players with established (i.e. they have at least 8 previous rated rounds, spread across multiple courses/layouts) ratings record rounds within +/- 30 rating point of their own rating.
              I'm expecting the scoring spread at this event will be much greater than Winthrop due to the fact that we have everyone from 700 rated players to 1000 rated players competing on the same course. We don't have any 1020 players, but it's likely that the ~1000 rated players will be shooting in excess of 20 strokes better than the ~900 rated players, which will be very interesting. I think that +/-30 could spread out a bit.

              Comment


              • #22
                This forum doesn't allow iframes, so here's a link to the data so far. The averages of everyone's guesses are at the top. Thanks to Carson for helping me rock out the formula's etc.

                BL SLSH Stats Contest

                Comment


                • #23
                  1)who will win mpo
                  Sean Phillips
                  2)mpo winning score
                  -16
                  3)avg hole 17 score
                  7
                  4)hot mpo round sat
                  -8
                  5)hot mpo round sun
                  -9
                  6)Avg first round ma2
                  83
                  7)avg score hole 7
                  6
                  8)ob strokes on lead card on second day
                  7
                  9)ssa for round 1
                  66
                  10) Ryan Gwillim's total ob
                  5

                  Ps 11) who wins women's intermediate
                  Michelle nava
                  Last edited by NAVA50383; March 8th, 2013, 04:50 PM. Reason: Forgot what par was lol

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    1)who will win mpo
                    Sean Phillips
                    2)mpo winning score
                    -15
                    3)avg hole 17 score
                    7
                    4)hot mpo round sat
                    -10
                    5)hot mpo round sun
                    -8
                    6)Avg first round ma2
                    79
                    7)avg score hole 7
                    6
                    8)ob strokes on lead card on second day
                    7
                    9)ssa for round 1
                    62
                    10) Ryan Gwillim's total ob
                    6
                    FORE! Youth 2011 http://www.discgolfscene.com/tournam...RE_Youth_2011/

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                      Sean Phillips
                      2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts).
                      -14
                      3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                      8
                      4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                      62
                      5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                      62
                      6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                      89
                      7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                      7
                      8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                      9
                      9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                      65
                      10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                      6
                      Last edited by JMittl; March 8th, 2013, 09:45 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Here are the questions (keep in mind that par is 69, so -9 would be shooting a 60):

                        1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                        Pinkal

                        2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                        -10

                        3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                        7

                        4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                        65

                        5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                        63

                        6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                        75

                        7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                        6

                        8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                        6

                        9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                        63

                        10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                        0

                        Hippy007

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                          Sean Phillips
                          2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                          -3
                          3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                          9
                          4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                          67
                          5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                          65
                          6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                          +20
                          7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                          7
                          8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                          21
                          9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                          72
                          10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                          14


                          I feel a little tacky voting for myself but I'm pretty all our Presidents voted for themselves too.

                          My guesses are way higher than most here. Especially OB strokes on lead card last day. The weather forecast looks absolutely AMAZING! I don't believe it. But if it truly is mid 50's with no wind this weekend I think I'll be a few strokes off.
                          Last edited by Sean Phillips; March 7th, 2013, 01:12 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Thank you all that guess I'm going to win.

                            As for those that think Pinkal's going to win Pinkal is my first pic to DNF

                            My second pics are Coates, Waibel, and Medlock.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              1) Who will win MPO(worth 3pts)
                              John Ollis: He's due
                              2) What will the MPO winning score be for the weekend (over/under par, i.e. "-9") (3pts)
                              -11
                              3) What will be the average score for all divisions on hole 17 (both rounds)(round to nearest whole number) (1pt)
                              7
                              4) What will the hot MPO round be on Saturday (1pt)
                              64
                              5) What will the hot MPO round be on Sunday (1pt)
                              63
                              6) What will the average first round score be for MA2 (round to nearest whole number)(1pt)
                              +18
                              7) What will be the average score on hole 7 (all divisions, all rounds) (round to the nearest whole number)(1pt)
                              8
                              8) How many OB strokes will be counted for the lead card in the second round (1pt)
                              12
                              9) What will be the SSA for round 1 (SSA is a 1000 rated round, for instance, Pier usually has an SSA of about 49) (4pts)
                              67
                              10) How many OB strokes will I (Ryan Gwillim) have for the whole tournament.* (1pt)
                              12

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Sean Phillips View Post
                                Thank you all that guess I'm going to win.
                                You know we will be playing Blue Lake and not Rockwood, right?

                                FYI: You may want to have a friend follow me on the lead card Sunday to take notes as it will be hard for me to show you how to play Blue Lake when you are three cards back!

                                Comment

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