Stat Geeks: Beaver State Fling - MPO Hole by Hole Scoring Analysis

[Bullseye]

fun fun fun

[mine all mine]

This was an impressive year for scores! I wish I could make it look that easy

[Jeff Hemmerling]

Interesting stuff. Thanks.

[snap7times]

I call bullshet on E14.... 3 people got 3's on that hole, yeah right... Sorry, but BS... That would take a 500 foot perfect shot around the corner past the 2nd row of guardian trees, then a another 500 foot bomb and then a 200 foot eagle shot... yeah 3 times.. okay... heh... would love to hear the stories about how a 3 was accomplished on this hole... Cuz I still havent gotten a 5 on this in the BSF...

[Kenny B]

Thank you for posting this!

[Bullseye]

I call bullshet on E14.... 3 people got 3's on that hole, yeah right... Sorry, but BS... That would take a 500 foot perfect shot around the corner past the 2nd row of guardian trees, then a another 500 foot bomb and then a 200 foot eagle shot... yeah 3 times.. okay... heh... would love to hear the stories about how a 3 was accomplished on this hole... Cuz I still havent gotten a 5 on this in the BSF...

Just because YOU can't do it, doesn't mean it can't be done :p

I've only 4'd the long pin three times myself and I know all of the moons had to align just perfectly for that to happen. I am curious though, so I will go back through the data and see exactly who it was who 3'd that hole. My guess is that it involved at least one looooooooong roller.

[NWDiscer]

I call bullshet on E14.... 3 people got 3's on that hole, yeah right... Sorry, but BS... That would take a 500 foot perfect shot around the corner past the 2nd row of guardian trees, then a another 500 foot bomb and then a 200 foot eagle shot... yeah 3 times.. okay... heh... would love to hear the stories about how a 3 was accomplished on this hole... Cuz I still havent gotten a 5 on this in the BSF...


hmmm maybe just a couple of 600' rollers, then its just a drop in 3 :evilgrin: :shocked:

[Kenny B]

I call bullshet on E14.... 3 people got 3's on that hole, yeah right... Sorry, but BS... That would take a 500 foot perfect shot around the corner past the 2nd row of guardian trees, then a another 500 foot bomb and then a 200 foot eagle shot... yeah 3 times.. okay... heh... would love to hear the stories about how a 3 was accomplished on this hole... Cuz I still havent gotten a 5 on this in the BSF...

I've heard Robbie Bratten can throw some fairly accurate 700+ ft rollers. Granted he wasn't at BSF this year, but I'm sure he's not the only one who can do it.

[Scott]

Awesome stuff. Thanks!

[snap7times]

Yes, I am verrry curious who got 3's and how the heck they did it... 600+ rollers on hole 9w and 13w I can believe.. but hole 14E has enough obstacles to make a roller of this magnitude a shot in the dark... Paul McBeth had a 350 and 500+ frozen rope (darr's good vocab for this), and still had a 300+ foot 3rd shot... Last year's lead group did better on this hole but no one was within 200 on their 3rd shot... so I will wait for the answers... ;)

[XandorF]

Apparently the hardest par 4 this year was....

drum roll please...

hole 6 on the west side. WHAT THE :explode:

are you serious? ........

only 13 birdies on this hole the whole time? that's embarrassing. at least i know what hole to look out for next year :yawn:

[Bullseye]

Apparently the hardest par 4 this year was....

drum roll please...

hole 6 on the west side. WHAT THE :explode:

are you serious? ........

only 13 birdies on this hole the whole time? that's embarrassing. at least i know what hole to look out for next year :yawn:

Yeah, I noticed that as well. 6W is a great hole, but scoring-wise it is a bit of a "tweener" hole. Although we have called it a par 4 for the past few years, the par is really somewhere between 4 & 5. After looking this data over I suspect calling it a par 5 might be more accurate. It really does take 2 nearly perfect shots to give yourself a putt for the 3.

[mine all mine]

Hole 6W is a very tough hole. I have played the Fling for the last four years and have only birdied it once. And like Bullseye said, it took two perfect shots. A huge 450ish hyzer-bomb followed by a perfect turnover around the tree at the top of the hill that finished back to the basket for a drop in.

[Bullseye]

Hole 6W is a very tough hole. I have played the Fling for the last four years and have only birdied it once. And like Bullseye said, it took two perfect shots. A huge 450ish hyzer-bomb followed by a perfect turnover around the tree at the top of the hill that finished back to the basket for a drop in.

Did it "feel" like a birdie... or an eagle?

[Sam]

Mine from last year felt like an Eagle. Especially since I hit it from the top of the hill... blind.

[mine all mine]

Did it "feel" like a birdie... or an eagle?

It felt like the best two shots I could have put together to get there. I would have liked it to be an eagle, but I agree the hole is a tweener.

[jeverett]

mmm stats.. ok, here's where the course design anomalies stand out.. for reference, as a guideline, a well-designed hole should produce a scoring spread with fewer than 70% of players scoring the same:

E1 72.8% of scores are 3
E2 71.0% of scores are 3
E6 72.2% of scores are 3
E8 75.3% of scores are 3
E9 71.6% of scores are 3 (despite being a par 4)
E13 82.2% of scores are 3
E15 69.3% of scores are 3
E18 70.6% of scores are 3

W5 74.2% of scores are 3
W6 68.1% of scores are 4 (it's a par 4)
W8 66.3% of scores are 3, but there are also no 2s on this par 3
W10 76.7% of scores are 3
W15 73.6% of scores are 3
W17 69.9% of scores are 3
W18 79.8% of scores are 3

As you can see, approximately 1/3 of the holes on each course came out over or very close to the 70% maximum guideline, with four particular holes really standing out:

E9 - From the recorded scores, this really wasn't a par 4. 71.6% of players put up a 3 on it, suggesting it really could use redesign both to reduce the number of 3s and increase the number of 4s. How about a more protected basket placement?

E13 - 82.2% of players parred this one, suggesting it could really use redesign to produce more 2s. Perhaps a shorter or less protected basket placement?

W8 - While only 66.3% of players parred this one, not a single player birdied it. The particular combination of fairway obstructions, OB on the right, and small island green around the basket seems to have produced a lot of layups and not a lot of attempts at birdie. Perhaps a non-island basket placement for this one? None of the other island holes had this extreme of an effect on birdie attempts, but pretty clearly this one was a tough hole to have a reasonable shot at birdie on. I personally took my only 6p of the event on it. :P

W18 - At 509', this one was a definite 'tweener'.. thus the 79.8% of players scoring a 3 on it. This one really needs either a tougher basket placement and a par 4 treatment, or a shorter basket placement.

[Sam]

E9 is the Genius hole. I have long wondered why this is a par 4 when it seems like two decent shots should give you an easy 3.

E13 is 2-able and I think should be left alone. :)

W8's problem is that it is hard to reach the green and land on the green in the air. It is possible to get close but hard to get on. And stop complaining... I took an 11ppp on this hole at last year's M3PO.

Please leave W18 alone. I didn't like it for a while but like it much more now that I can roll to a look.

:D

[Bullseye]

<some text removed for brevity>

As you can see, approximately 1/3 of the holes on each course came out over or very close to the 70% maximum guideline, with four particular holes really standing out:

E9 - From the recorded scores, this really wasn't a par 4. 71.6% of players put up a 3 on it, suggesting it really could use redesign both to reduce the number of 3s and increase the number of 4s. How about a more protected basket placement?

E13 - 82.2% of players parred this one, suggesting it could really use redesign to produce more 2s. Perhaps a shorter or less protected basket placement?

W8 - While only 66.3% of players parred this one, not a single player birdied it. The particular combination of fairway obstructions, OB on the right, and small island green around the basket seems to have produced a lot of layups and not a lot of attempts at birdie. Perhaps a non-island basket placement for this one? None of the other island holes had this extreme of an effect on birdie attempts, but pretty clearly this one was a tough hole to have a reasonable shot at birdie on. I personally took my only 6p of the event on it. :P

W18 - At 509', this one was a definite 'tweener'.. thus the 79.8% of players scoring a 3 on it. This one really needs either a tougher basket placement and a par 4 treatment, or a shorter basket placement.

[E9]: This is the "Genius" hole. A tree fell two winters ago that made the hole considerably easier, however, the dilemma is that even with the tree gone it is still VERY hard to card a "2" on this hole. As it stands I consider it an easy par 4, which IMO is better than a "3" with almost no chance at the birdie.

[E13]: This hole was shortened this year in an attempt to accomplish this. We did have more birdies this year than we did last year.

[W8]: I definitely will not be taking this pin position off the island, but I have been fighting to re-introduce the "border" on the front side the island (but not on the back side) and upping the par to "4". This would prevent people from sliding an upshot onto the island. This one change made a huge impact on the way the hole played in the year we used the border.

[W18]: I will have to start looking at options for this hole. It doesn't HAVE to change, but if we can make a minor change that will "mix it up" a bit it could be improved.

[runnaman]

Great suggestions Jeverret. I had some of those exact same suggestions. Especially on the genius hole.

[jeverett]

Hi Sam, Bullseye, and all,

First, I just quickly want to clarify that I'm in no way attempting to complain about any aspect of the BSF or the layout. ;) I had a phenomenal time playing my first BSF, and both courses are absolutely top-notch.. by far the most impressive courses I've ever played. I dearly wish Milo wasn't a 2.5 hour drive for me.. I'd be there much more. :P

For the Genius Hole (E9), as this was also my first time ever playing the courses, I didn't know about the tree opening up the 'fairway'. I agree with Bullseye in that it really can't be fixed by just reducing it to a par 3. As I recall, there's a very large fir tree to the right of the BSF basket placement. Would it be possible to place the basket off to the right of that tree somewhere more protected? I really feel like with more protection around the basket the hole would be a legitimate par 4.

For E13, the whole point of this exercise is to not debate "is it 2-able?". Sure, you can get a 2 on E13. But out of 163 recorded rounds, only 10 people actually accomplished that. Be it flight path, distance, landing placement, etc., in the BSF configuration this hole is still not producing the desired scoring spread. Honestly, I don't really have a great solution for it, either.. there aren't a lot of (other) good basket placement options for it. Perhaps long-term a different tee pad location could help?

For W8, I definitely liked the island position, and I'm not sure what other basket placements might really be good options. That said, I'm not a huge fan of artificial 'hay bale' obstacles either. Are there really no good options on the left side (heading toward the next tee pad)?

For W18, it really felt like there should have been a viable 'shortcut' route. If you examine the hole diagram in the caddy book/tee sign for this hole, you can easily see where I mean. There's that tiny strip of fairway just short of the two trees. But that line wasn't actually there on the hole itself. Perhaps that could be cleared out slightly, to allow for a dialed-in shorter drive for a window at the basket?

I also probably should have mentioned W10 as another with redesign potential (76.7% of players put up 3s on it). I recall that the lower branches of some of the fir tree guarding the basket were already cleared, so that pretty much just leaves moving the basket slightly to allow for more birdie lines. No real suggestion here.

[mine all mine]

W18 is one of my favorite holes out there because it challenged me to work on my roller so I would one day birdie it. I finally had a decent look this year but left my putt low rattling the cage. I will get it next year!

I am not sure this course needs to be changed at all. I did like the few tweeks this year, 1W/10E. It would be cool to see little changes like that each year so we have a little different look at a few holes each year. The top pros showed that milo is vulnerable and I personally scored my best rounds this year as well. It may have been the later date and beautiful weather that contributed to that though.

[snap7times]

The branches and hanging branches on 13E's tree on the right side 250-325' down the fairway blocked alot of perfect shots for birdie, for example watch the BSF video of the lead card where Nate Doss has a beautiful shot that would have been parked but hit some small hanging branches and put him 25 short...
9E was a bit harder in the past when that tree on the right side of the basket was not trimmed the way it is now.
I look forward to 2 to 4 changes in 2012 similar to 1W and 10E.

[Bullseye]

FYI: The players who carded a "3" on E14 were:

Jere Eshelman
Paul Ulibarri
Dana Vicich

Mad props to these guys. That is quite an accomplishment.

[Chuck Kennedy]

Analyzing this data is faulty without knowing the average rating of the players included AND adjusting the percentages to the skill level the course is intended to challenge if necessary. So if the average rating of these players is 984, the scoring spreads need to be adjusted to a 1000 equivalent before evaluating if they need tweaking for Gold level play.

[Bullseye]

Analyzing this data is faulty without knowing the average rating of the players included AND adjusting the percentages to the skill level the course is intended to challenge if necessary. So if the average rating of these players is 984, the scoring spreads need to be adjusted to a 1000 equivalent before evaluating if they need tweaking for Gold level play.

The average rating of this field was 996.79.

[mine all mine]

The average rating of this field was 996.79.

'nough said!

[Chuck Kennedy]

The average rating of this field was 996.79.
That's pretty good. I would still drop the scores from the lowest rated players in this pool, all players under 960 for sure and continue dropping from 960 up, until the average is 1000 +/- 0.1. They are the ones who are likely to have the higher hole scores and make the spreads a little wider on some of these holes. It will likely highlight your "problem par 2s" even more and either lower your scores of 3 percentages or boost them on certain holes.

Separate from BSF, if you truly want to determine any hole adjustments for Gold level daily play, you only include scores from players with ratings from 975-1025 in the analysis and see what it looks like.

[jeverett]

That's pretty good. I would still drop the scores from the lowest rated players in this pool, all players under 960 for sure and continue dropping from 960 up, until the average is 1000 +/- 0.1. They are the ones who are likely to have the higher hole scores and make the spreads a little wider on some of these holes. It will likely highlight your "problem par 2s" even more and either lower your scores of 3 percentages or boost them on certain holes.

Separate from BSF, if you truly want to determine any hole adjustments for Gold level daily play, you only include scores from players with ratings from 975-1025 in the analysis and see what it looks like.

The advantage of the BSF data is that this particular pool (MPO) only includes data from players 970+ (no one with a rating of under 970 got into the event before it filled). I was operating under the (thankfully correct) assumption that the average rating would come out very close to 1000 already, but it's good to note that we are technically a few points off of that. I'd be interested in seeing 'normed' data, where the very lowest ratings get removed until we hit a true 1000 average, if anyone with access to that would be willing, but I strongly suspect that the specific 'problem' holes won't change.

As for daily play, with (I'm assuming) multiple basket locations (not to mention 9 holes that aren't used for daily play) I can't really see that data being all that useful.

[Jonesy]

what was the effect of the really hard to see red baskets on the field this year? dark red, really?

[Scott]

what was the effect of the really hard to see red baskets on the field this year? dark red, really?

The only comment I heard regarding the baskets was that they looked freaking terrific. I heard that comment about 150 times.

[TreeLove]

fun fun fun

Looks the Genius Hole truly is!

[LegoRules]

what was the effect of the really hard to see red baskets on the field this year? dark red, really?

I had no trouble seeing the baskets, and I have old lady eyes. :wink2: Love them they look amazing. :bowing:

Cindy :)

[mine all mine]

what was the effect of the really hard to see red baskets on the field this year? dark red, really?

I thought they ROCKED! The baskets looked great and the red was sweet!

[Bullseye]

what was the effect of the really hard to see red baskets on the field this year? dark red, really?

Proof: No matter how much time and effort you put into a project, you just cannot please everyone. Sheesh.

[Darr]

Proof: No matter how much time and effort you put into a project, you just cannot please everyone. Sheesh.

Yeah, what a douche bag!

[Bullseye]

Yeah, what a douche bag!

Well, I wouldn't go THAT far... it is Jonesy after all... but he did hurt my feeling. <Sniff>

[NWDiscer]

Well, I wouldn't go THAT far... it is Jonesy after all... but he did hurt my feeling. <Sniff>

dam your down to just a single feeling.....Running the Fling must be a Rough Motha. :pullhair:

i think you "all" put in a great effort for the disc comm. as a whole. :trophy:


Red Baskets are so much better than Yellow Baskets

:cheers:


maybe Jonsey just needs to work on his putting?? :D :nahnah:

[The Brodys]

Proof: No matter how much time and effort you put into a project, you just cannot please everyone. Sheesh.

Just coming from the 8% of males that are color blind, the most common type of color blindness is red/green color blind, so they are very hard to see for 8% of the male population. Up close they look very nice but finding a dark red basket in a green background is a challenge. Bright would be a better choice IMO, but you guys worked your butts off and made an amazing event either way. Thanks for all your hard work and Jonesy I feel your pain.
:cheers:

[jeverett]

Just coming from the 8% of males that are color blind, the most common type of color blindness is red/green color blind, so they are very hard to see for 8% of the male population. Up close they look very nice but finding a dark red basket in a green background is a challenge. Bright would be a better choice IMO, but you guys worked your butts off and made an amazing event either way. Thanks for all your hard work and Jonesy I feel your pain.
:cheers:

Eh, I'm red/green colorblind too.. and while I need someone to help me find my red discs on even short-cut grass, I had no problem spotting the baskets.

[emmarose]

Eh, I'm red/green colorblind too.. and while I need someone to help me find my red discs on even short-cut grass, I had no problem spotting the baskets.

same here. can't find my red or pink discs in the short grass but i didn't have a problem with the baskets... however, color blindness works differently for different people so maybe jonesy really did have a legitimate concern... or maybe he just hadn't heard enough griping about the fling and didn't want hagerty and mittl to think they'd actually done as damn fine a job as anyone could have hoped for or expected...

ha.

[The Brodys]

Eh, I'm red/green colorblind too.. and while I need someone to help me find my red discs on even short-cut grass, I had no problem spotting the baskets.

Strongly colorblind people might only be able to tell about 20 hues apart from each other, with normal color vision this number raises to more than 100 different hues. Severity of color blindness is usually divided into the following four categories: slightly, moderate, strong, and absolute. So I am happy that you could see them, but for the other color deficient folks, like myself, do have a problem seeing them. Just facts of life, I am not saying they should be changed or that every color deficient person cant see them. I was just saying that I have a problem with those color combinations.

[Bruce]

Yeah, my dad had the same issue when he came out to spectate, he finally gave up and went home. I feel bad for those that have difficulties with colors!

[Scott]

I'm pretty sure that there is no color that could be used that wouldn't cause someone to complain.

[The Brodys]

I'm pretty sure that there is no color that could be used that wouldn't cause someone to complain.

That is sad and probably true. I was not trying to complain, I was just letting people know that it is a problem for a portion of us to actually see that color. I think yellow is a great color and has been fairly successful in being used for baskets for a while. Really gray is fine with me, I just feel Jonesys pain.

[Chuck Kennedy]

The reason white is used for marking many green grass sports fields is it's one of the best colors for color blind athletes and, more importantly officials, to see. We always try to use white paint for marking OB, temp tees and directional arrows on the grass for that reason. The advice is actually in the How to Run a PDGA Event document at the end of Appendix A on page 7:
http://www.pdga.com/files/documents/How%20To%20Run%20PDGA%20Event%20112108.pdf

[The Brodys]

The PDGA is looking out for us color blind folks. White is a great idea for markers. I am sure white baskets are not popular because of how they look once they are slightly weathered. Thanks PDGA for thinking of us color blind disc golfers.

[Bruce]

I think white baskets would be less popular due to vandalism.

[Jonesy]

im not colorblind. ugh.:slapface: "Human color perception is dependent upon the interaction of all receptor cells with light, and this combination results in nearly trichromic stimulation. There are shifts in color sensitivity with variations in light levels, so that blue colors look relatively brighter in dim light and red colors look brighter in bright light. This effect can be observed by pointing a flashlight onto a color print, which will result in the reds suddenly appearing much brighter and more saturated. In recent years, consideration of human color visual sensitivity has led to changes in the long-standing practice of painting emergency vehicles, such as fire trucks and ambulances, entirely red. Although the color is intended for the vehicles to be easily seen and responded to, the wavelength distribution is not highly visible at low light levels and appears nearly black at night." -Florida State University optical science web site. :nahnah:http://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/primer/lightandcolor/humanvisionintro.html
dark red was a bad choice for all normal people to be able to see when the basket is shaded. they really stand out well when they're in the sun though. over half of the basket placements, however, are not in the sun.

[Jonesy]

another study i found done by the BLM or someone similar found that overwhelmingly florescent pink was the most noticed color against a forest backdrop for tree flagging. hot pink discs are impossible to lose!

[Jonesy]

To the jeffs, please do not be personally offended by my dislike of red baskets. i also think purple, dark blue, brown, black or most greens would've been bad choices.

[Flash]

People are proud of the Beaver State Fling and Milo McIver and they just want to make it better each year, thus the comments and constructive criticism.

But if you really want to help out instead of just commenting on a forum send your comments or suggestions to the TD's when they can make the changes. If you have course ideas come out early in the planning year and make suggestions and help get them done. If every one took interest in the course with just one hole the course would be that much better next year.

[Jonesy]

they're both on this forum.

[Jim J]

To the jeffs, please do not be personally offended by my dislike of red baskets. i also think purple, dark blue, brown, black or most greens would've been bad choices.

Maybe they should have had big yellow flags sticking out of the tops of the baskets.

Wouldn't that be great?

[Matt Kelly]

FYI: The players who carded a "3" on E14 were:

Jere Eshelman
Paul Ulibarri
Dana Vicich

Mad props to these guys. That is quite an accomplishment.

Seriously! I feel pretty damn good about taking a 5 on it!

[Sausage Fingers]

Seriously! I feel pretty damn good about taking a 5 on it!

At least you can get a 5 on it! I had to get up in the morning at ten o'clock at night half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill, and pay mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our Dad and our mother would kill us and dance about on our graves singing Hallelujah.

:pirate:

[Fridgecat]

At least you can get a 5 on it! I had to get up in the morning at ten o'clock at night half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill, and pay mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our Dad and our mother would kill us and dance about on our graves singing Hallelujah.

:pirate:

Why...You were lucky to have a grave!
(oh and by the way, a solid 7 seems to be my favorite score on that hole)

[Flash]

they're both on this forum.

And clearly so are you!