Ratings predictions anyone?

[Bruce]

So I'm a little stoked, for the first time in a year+ my rating will go up instead of down, by about 17 points or so depending on if the GNO gets ratings in, in time.

So what is your rating going to do?!

[Joshua Olmsted]

After my first decrese in 7 ratings up dates last time, I should bounce back to a new high of 945, up 6 points. The personal best round at Trojan should help a lot.

[runnaman]

Depending on if I play the tournament May 2 and if those rounds get added, right now I'm looking at going up 18 points to 900.

[Scott]

Depending on if I play the tournament May 2 and if those rounds get added,

They won't. The cutoff for submission is today.

[runnaman]

Alright, looks like I'm going to be at 900 then.

[Joshua Olmsted]

So has anyone received the update yet? I remember on the last update it seemed that they went through in waves over the course of the day of and before the update, mine hasn't pinged through yet, I'm waiting hopefully....

[Joshua Olmsted]

And not 2 minutes after I post, the new ratings come up, looks like my prediction was off, I only jumped back up 4 points to my old high of 943.

[LegoRules]

Mine has not been updated yet. If M3PO had made it into this update I think I might have hit the 800 mark, but alas it did not, so I am not sure I will make that goal this time. I am pretty sure I will go up a bit though.

Cindy :)

[D-Walk]

Looks like a 13 point jump for me.

[LegoRules]

Mine has not been updated yet. If M3PO had made it into this update I think I might have hit the 800 mark, but alas it did not, so I am not sure I will make that goal this time. I am pretty sure I will go up a bit though.

Cindy :)


Well mine did go up 5. :yay: I know I am repeating myself, but I really wish M3PO had been included because I know I would have made that 800 mark if it had been. :(

Cindy :)

[runnaman]

I was off on mine. It only went up to 894 instead of 900.

[DexterHawk]

thank god for dropped rounds... my disaster round at GNO dropped and my rating only went down by 2... still in the top ten in Oregon, but a little farther from the four digit number... oh well.

[Minordiety]

Wahoooo!!! I went up 15 points!:yay:

Do they drop the lowest round?

[Minordiety]

Looks like a 13 point jump for me.

Way to go D-Walk!

[Celeste]

Woohoo -21 points! My biggest drop ever. Well I had fun at the Memorial anyway. Good thing I don't care about my rating.

[Scott]

Five point drop for me. Those rounds at the Trojan Slosh were rated waaaaay lower than I expected.

[Bruce]

21 point jump, would have been more with the 3PO, but I'm still happy.

["Over the Hill" Bob]

2 point jump! The last three updates has bumped me up 5 points. I might get out of the 750's yet. :laughing:

Bob

[Celeste]

Go Bob Go!

[DMajor]

I forgot to post my prediction. But I would have been exactly right. I went up 2 points. Yay

[Wes Hansen]

SIgned up before MPO. Today I get the PDGA confirmation of renewal. Ratings come out, but I still show not active. Another email comes and says I won't show as active until tomorrow. But will I get my first update in two years? Odd timing. I'd process renewals before the update.
I was so hoping to leave the 800's behind when I renewed. Those three points and the BSF were why I renewed. Even if I never renew again, I wanted the permanent record to show me in the 900's, not 800's!

[Sam]

Up 1. Not bad considering some of the rounds they included.

[Darr]

plus 12! :rockon:

[DanZ]

I noticed that Scott Heath, MA1, is now at 970. Thus forced to play MPO. Up 17 - good job Scott!

[Bullseye]

I noticed that Scott Heath, MA1, is now at 970. Thus forced to play MPO. Up 17 - good job Scott!

No one is FORCED to play Open, regardless of rating. Technically you could be a 1040 rated am and no one can do anything about it.

The only time the 970 rating threshold comes into play is when a player has already accepted cash (becoming pro) wants to play in Advanced. If that player's rating is higher than 970 he cannot play in Advanced. If that player's rating is below 970 he is by the rules allowed to play in the Advanced division... although not certain events... like Worlds.

[OneDarkRebel]

I noticed that Scott Heath, MA1, is now at 970. Thus forced to play MPO. Up 17 - good job Scott!

Yes, great job! But he is not forced to play MPO, that is the PDGA recommended rating at which players should start playing open. A player could be 1030 rated, or 2000 rated and still maintain AM status. The "no cap on staying in Advanced" has always been one of those heated topics of discussion. There is a 997 rated player that is still playing in the Advanced division of some larger events...oh yeah, he's 15. :shocked:

[Jeff Hemmerling]

SIgned up before MPO.
Wes, Did you mean 3PO?

I was so hoping to leave the 800's behind when I renewed. Those three points and the BSF were why I renewed. Even if I never renew again, I wanted the permanent record to show me in the 900's, not 800's!I agree, I want to retire with my rating above 900 ;)

[Tim]

No one is FORCED to play Open, regardless of rating. Technically you could be a 1040 rated am and no one can do anything about it.

The only time the 970 rating threshold comes into play is when a player has already accepted cash (becoming pro) wants to play in Advanced. If that player's rating is higher than 970 he cannot play in Advanced. If that player's rating is below 970 he is by the rules allowed to play in the Advanced division... although not certain events... like Worlds.

Hmm, you seem to be quite knowledgeable in those rules, Jeff.... :D

[Bullseye]

Hmm, you seem to be quite knowledgeable in those rules, Jeff.... :D

Yeah, and if I EVER bust 970 I'll be ready. :D

[RonTheWhip]

my rating goes down 1 point for some reason

92 rounds in my rating currently. 1 more than borg, and thats without the 4 rounds from milo.

my standard deviation is HUGE, now an old 936 round counts...

ratings are odd. playing the best golf of my life and lost a point...

[all2common]

It's the mystery quotient that nobody knows about...except one man.

[DanZ]

No one is FORCED to play Open...

So once a pro, always a pro? Or does pro/am status change when renewing membership?

For example, what if a 970 rated player loses his right arm in a horrible accident and has to start throwing with his left hand.

Would he have to wait until next year and renew as an amateur to regain his amateur status?

(Lets assume that he doesn't want to write a letter of petition to the PDGA to change his status in the middle of the year)

And if this is true, then what is the incentive for people to renew as a pro and spend the extra cash if the PDGA is going to reclassify them as soon as they accept cash for that year?

[Bullseye]

So once a pro, always a pro? Or does pro/am status change when renewing membership?

For example, what if a 970 rated player loses his right arm in a horrible accident and has to start throwing with his left hand.

Would he have to wait until next year and renew as an amateur to regain his amateur status?

(Lets assume that he doesn't want to write a letter of petition to the PDGA to change his status in the middle of the year)

And if this is true, then what is the incentive for people to renew as a pro and spend the extra cash if the PDGA is going to reclassify them as soon as they accept cash for that year?

If he wanted a permanent change to AM status he would have to petition the PDGA.

The other option would be to play Pro lefty until his rating dropped below 970 at which point he could play Advanced based on the new rating. Although in this case he would still technically be a pro playing in an Am division.

The PDGA won't reclassify anyone without a petition requesting it, so the renewal trick would probably get caught somewhere along the line.

Face it Zents, you're stuck man. :p

[Sean Phillips]

+5, woot, woot. It should go up some more when the M3PO gets included.

[snap7times]

plus 4 for my highest rating yet... yayy...

[DexterHawk]

Amazing how after a couple of years to develop a rating once you consistently have 25+ rounds in your rating it is very difficult to move it dramatically one direction or the other.

[Bullseye]

Amazing how after a couple of years to develop a rating once you consistently have 25+ rounds in your rating it is very difficult to move it dramatically one direction or the other.

No doubt. I had 61 rated rounds in that last update...

[Chuck Kennedy]

It only takes one year to make a big move since only your most recent 12 months count. If a player averaged 900 in 2009 and then averaged 975 with at least 8 rounds in 2010, they would be at 975 at the end of 2010 or even higher if the most recent ones at the end of 2010 were better and got double weighted.

[Jeff Hemmerling]

It only takes one year to make a big move since only your most recent 12 months count. If a player averaged 900 in 2009 and then averaged 975 with at least 8 rounds in 2010, they would be at 975 at the end of 2010 or even higher if the most recent ones at the end of 2010 were better and got double weighted.Thanks for the clarification Chuck.

[KCrabtree]

+5. Didn't think i'd go up that much, but i'll take it

[DMajor]

+5. Didn't think i'd go up that much, but i'll take it

Tied for 25th in the PDGA!

Atta boy

[DMajor]

It only takes one year to make a big move since only your most recent 12 months count. If a player averaged 900 in 2009 and then averaged 975 with at least 8 rounds in 2010, they would be at 975 at the end of 2010 or even higher if the most recent ones at the end of 2010 were better and got double weighted.

Are the double weighted rounds included when calculating the standard deviation?

[Chuck Kennedy]

Standard deviation is calculated before any doubling. Your lowest rated round is not even included in your standard deviation calculation so a bad round doesn't artificially increase your standard deviation.

[GettinBetter]

+5. Didn't think i'd go up that much, but i'll take it

You would take it.....

[Phatjay]

Checked my rating and it went down 1 point but there was a tournament posted for me that I didn't play in and there was one round that was to low to even be counted on my rating. But the other one was just high enough to drop me. OUCH I think somebody stole my identity!

Wait who am I again?

[DMajor]

Standard deviation is calculated before any doubling. Your lowest rated round is not even included in your standard deviation calculation so a bad round doesn't artificially increase your standard deviation.

Once the 2.5 times standard deviation is calculated are the dropped rounds based off your previous rating or your new rating?

[Chuck Kennedy]

Neither. There's no double weighting.

[DMajor]

I understand there's no double weighting. I'm curious if the dropped rounds are based off of your pre update rating, your updated rating, or your rating at the time of the round? If I have a round that is just a few points away from getting dropped last update is there a chance it could get dropped next update if my rating goes up enough or my 2.5standard deviation goes down enough?

[Chuck Kennedy]

Only the rounds in the current update are involved.

[mazza]

so why would it not show the windy river open in my rating??. it was back in april and does not show up on my history but when i look for the event i can find it?

[mazza]

so why would it not show the windy river open in my rating??. it was back in april and does not show up on my history but when i look for the event i can find it?

never mind. it was not submited before 4/20

[Phatjay]

So hey Chuck I sent an email to the pdga about the error on the above post last week and have not got a response yet. Was wondering if you could look into it for me or if I should just send another email or just be more patient? My pdga # is 22086.

[Phatjay]

Sorry chuck I checked my email again and must have just looked right past your email you sent me.




And who am I again?